littlefield simulation demand forecasting

Estimate the minimum number of machines at each station to meet that peak demand. These data are important for forecasting the demand and for deciding on purchasing machines and strategies realized concerning setting up . highest utilization, we know thats the bottleneck. What will be the impact of a competitor opening a store nearby? MGT 3900 PLAN REQUIREMENTS FOR MIYAOKA LITTLEFIELD SIMULATION Clemson University MGT 3900 PLAN REQUIREMENTS FOR MIYAOKA LITTLEFIELD SIMULATION Team Name: Questions about the game set up: 1) The cost of a single raw kit is: 2) The lead time to obtain an order of raw kits is: 3) The amount of interest earned on the cash balance is (choose one): a. 9 Executive Summary Our team operated and managed the Littlefield Technologies facility over the span of 1268 simulated days. Specifically, on day 0, the factory began operations with three stuffers, two testers, and one tuner, and a raw materials inventory of 9600 kits. Using simulation, a firm can combine time-series and causal methods to answer such questions as: What will be the impact of a price pro motion? Littlefield Technologies is an online factory management simulator program produced since 1997 by Responsive Learning Technologies for college students to use while taking business management courses. Have u ever tried external professional writing services like www.HelpWriting.net ? Strategies for the Little field Simulation Game What Contract to work on depending on lead-time? We did not want the revenue to ever drop from $1000, so we took action based on the utilization rates of the machines. As such, the first decision to be made involved inventory management and raw material ordering. 0 xb```b````2@( Now we can plug these numbers into the EOQ model to determine the optimal order quantity. 595 0 obj<>stream capacity to those levels, we will cover the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) and reorder point We took the sales per day data that we had and calculated a liner regression. Demand is then expected to stabilize. Even with random orders here and there, demand followed the trends that were given. Eventually, demand should begin to decline at a roughly linear rate. Since the cookie sheets can hold exactly 1 dozen cookies, CampXM questions 1. The traditional trend in heritage management focuses on a conservationist strategy, i.e., keeping heritage in a good condition while avoiding its interaction with other elements. To calculate the holding cost we need to know the cost per unit and the daily interest rate. The strategy yield Thundercats Except for one night early on in the simulation where we reduced it to contract 2 because we wouldnt be able to monitor the factory for demand spikes, we operated on contract 3 almost the entire time. A summary of the rationale behind the key decisions made would perhaps best explain the results we achieved. Littlefield Strategy = Calculating Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) 9 years ago The Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) minimizes the inventory holding costs and ordering costs. | We should have bought both Machine 1 and 3 based on our calculation on the utilization rate (looking at the past 50 days data) during the first 7 days. Littlefield Simulation II Day 1-50 Robert Mackintosh Trey Kelley Andrew Spinnler Kent Johansen well-known formulas for the mean and variance of lead-time demand. Management's main concern is managing the capacity of the lab in response to the complex . Next we, calculated what game it would be in 24 hours, and then we, plugged that into the linear regression to get the mean, forecasted number of orders on that day. This means that only one activity is going on at any point in time. Annual Demand: 4,803 kits Safety stock: 15 kits Order quanity: 404 kits Reorder point: 55 kits We decided that the reorder point should be changed to 70 kits to avoid running out of inventory in the event that demand rapidly rose. We did calculate reorder points throughout the process, but instead of calculating the reorder point as average daily demand multiplied by the 4 days required for shipment we used average daily demand multiplied by 5 days to make sure we always had enough inventory to accommodate orders. Our team operated and managed the Littlefield Technologies facility over the span of 1268 simulated days. 7 Pages. Choosing the right one depends on your business needs, and the first step is to evaluate each method. Survey Methods. I know the equations but could use help finding daily demand and figuring it out. In terms of when to purchase machines, we decided that buying machines as early as possible would be ideal as there was no operating costs after the initial investment in the machine. Capacity Management at Littlefield Technologies 1541 Words. If priority was set to step 4, station 2 would process the output of station 3 first, and inventory would reach station 3 from station 1 at a slower rate. 0000001740 00000 n This method verified the earlier calculation by coming out very close at 22,600 units. If so, when do we adjust or gives students hands-on experience as they make decisions in a competitive, dynamic environment. Copyright 2023 StudeerSnel B.V., Keizersgracht 424, 1016 GC Amsterdam, KVK: 56829787, BTW: NL852321363B01, size and to minimize the total cost of inventory. xref Thus should have bought earlier, probably around day 52 when utilization rate hit 1. Yellow and gray lines represent maximum and minimum variability based on two standard deviations (95%). The LT factory began production by investing most of its cash into capacity and inventory. Littlefield Simulation Report Question Title * Q1. I N FORMS Transactions on Education Vol.5,No.2,January2005,pp.80-83 issn1532-0545 05 0502 0080 informs doi10.1287/ited.5.2.80 2005INFORMS MakingOperationsManagementFun: 4. used to forecast the future demand as the growth of the demand increases at a lower level, increases to a higher level, and then decreases over the course of the project. Therefore, the optimal order quantity (Q*) is 1721 units. Team Pakistan Thousand Oaks, CA 91320 0000000016 00000 n Question: Annex 3: Digital data and parameters Management of simulation periods Number of simulated days 360 Number of historic days 30 Number of blocked days (final) 30 Financial data Initial cash 160 000 S Annual interest rate 10% Fixed cost in case of loan 10% of loan amount Annual interest rate in case of loan 20% Finished products: orders . On day 50 of the simulation, my team, 1teamsf, decided to buy a second machine to sustain our $1,000 revenue per day and met our quoted lead time for producing and shipping receivers. The average queues at stations 1 and 3 were reduced. While forecast accuracy is rarely 100%, even in the best of circumstances, proven demand forecasting techniques allow supply chain managers to predict future demand with a high degree of accuracy. Average Daily Demand = 747 Kits Yearly Demand = 272,655 Kits Holding Cost = $10*10% = $1 EOQ = sqrt(2DS/H) = 23,352 Kits Average Daily Demand = 747 Kits Lead Time = 4 Days ROP = d*L = 2,988 99% of Max. Management is currently quoting 7-day lead times, but management would like to charge the higher prices that customers would pay for dramatically shorter lead times. The product lifetime of many high-tech electronic products is short, and the DSS receiver is no exception. : 57 Use forecasting to get linear trend regression and smoothing models. The available values are: Day, Week, and Month. and then took the appropriate steps for the next real day. LITTLEFIELD TECHNOLOGIES Activate your 30 day free trialto unlock unlimited reading. With much anticipation we reviewed all the literate that was provided subsequently to assist us in decision making at Littlefield Technologies. Current State of the System and Your Assignment Business Case for Capacity in Relation to Contract Revenue, Batch Sizing and Estimation of Set-up Times, Overview of team strategy, action, results, LITTLEFIELD SIMULATION - GENERAL WRITE-UP EVALUATION, We assessed that, demand will be increasing linearly for the, after that. 0000005301 00000 n To set the reorder point and order quantities for the materials we will be choosing between three Which elements of the learning process proved most challenging? We've encountered a problem, please try again. 64 and the safety factor we decided to use was 3. According to our regressionanalysis using the first 30 days of demand data, the P-value is less than 0.05, so the variable time has a statistically significant relationship to demand.The demand line equation that we came up with is: Demand = 2.32 + 0.136 * (Day #). As this is a short life-cycle product, managers expect that demand during the 268 day period will grow as customers discover the product, eventually level out, and then decline. However, when . The following equation applies to this analysis: Regression Analysis = a + bx After using the first 50 days to determine the demand for the remainder of the The forecasting method used is the rolling average method, which takes previous historical demand and calculates the average for the next forecasting period. We forecast demand to stay relatively stable throughout the game based on . Littlefield Technologies Operations 3 | makebigmoney | 1,141,686 | Get started for FREE Continue. Our team finished the simulation in 3rd place, posting $2,234,639 in cash at the end of the game. We tried not to spend our money right away with purchasing new machines since we are earning interest on it and we were not sure what the utilization would be with all three of the machines. Once the initial first 50 days of data became available, we plotted the data against different forecasting methods: Moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, exponential smoothing with trend, and exponential smoothing with trend and season. DAYS These reports enable factory managers to quickly assess performance and make Littlefield strategy decisions. Assignment options include 2-hour games to be played in class and 7-day games to be played outside class. The account includes the decisions we made, the actions we took, and their impact on production and the bottom line. where you set up the model and run the simulation. We knew that our output was lower than demand right when Game 2 started. Not a full list of every action, but the June Survey methods are the most commonly used methods of forecasting demand in the short run. Bring operations to life with the market-leading operations management simulation used by hundreds of thousands! Identify several of the more common forecasting methods Measure and assess the errors that exist in all forecasts fManagerial Issues Nik Wolford, Dan Moffet, Viktoryia Yahorava, Alexa Leavitt. time contracts or long-lead-time contracts? 2. For information on the HEOA, please go to http://ed.gov/policy/highered/leg/hea08/index.html. We, than forecasted that we would have the mean number of, orders plus 1.19 times the standard deviation in the given, day. 749 Words. capacity is costly in general, we want to utilize our station highly. 0 Which of the. Essay Sample Check Writing Quality. . Littlefield Technologies mainly sells to retailers and small manufacturers using the DSSs in more complex products. Littlefield Technologies (LT) has developed another DSS product. )XbXYHX*:T;PQ G8%+dQ1bQpRag2a c E8y&0*@R` - 4e:``?y}g p W Why? After all of our other purchases, utilization capacity and queuing at station 2 were still very manageable. Our two primary goals at the beginning of the simulation were as follows: 1) Eliminate bottlenecks and increase capacity in order to meet forecasted demand 2) Decrease lead time to 0.25 days in order to satisfy Contract 2 and maximize revenue our two primary goals at the beginning of the simulation were as follows: 1) eliminate bottlenecks and increase capacity in order to meet forecasted demand 2) decrease lead time to 0.25 days in order to satisfy contract 2 and maximize revenue in the case of littlefield, let's assume that we have a stable demand (d) of 100 units per day and the Littlefield Simulation Jun.